The Art and Science of Predication
Corporations and governments spend fortunes on forecasting every year, but realistically we are all forecasters in some shape or form. We frequently draw conclusions and make decisions based on the analysis of experts, complex models and even our own pre-conceived notions; but how often do we bother to ask how accurate are these forecasts really? In this provocative presentation, based on his New York Times bestseller, Superforecasting, Dan Gardner explores the style of thinking most likely to deliver accurate forecasts and how we can target our efforts to become better forecasters.
Dan GardnerJournalist and Co-Author, Superforecasting
Dan Gardner is a journalist who examines the processes by which we forecast the future, in order to facilitate decision-making. His latest bestseller, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (co-authored with Philip Tetlock), makes the case that pundits are notoriously inaccurate at predicting the future, and that ordinary people make better prognostications with wide-ranging information gathering, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. In 2016, Gardner became an advisor to the Prime Minister of Canada. Previously, he spent 17 years in newspaper journalism, earning accolades that included the National Newspaper Award, the Michener Award, and the Canadian Association of Journalists Award.
Check out Dan's interview on the AFP Conversations Podcast